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Guarani vs S. Luqueno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 17 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 21:15

Guarani

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

S. Luqueno

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+42.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-13.8%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.7%1-18.5%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-16.9%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-16.5%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.4% 50.0% 2.00 +42.8%

Draw 17.8% 31.3% 3.20 -43.0%

Away win 10.7% 27.8% 3.60 -61.5%

Over 2.5 56.4% 46.5% 2.15 +21.3%

Over 3.5 34.0% 26.0% 3.85 +30.9%

BTTS 46.0% 54.1% 1.85 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.0%

H 71% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 3–0 9.6%

#4 2–1✓ 9.4%

#5 1–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani2.2

S. Luqueno0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI · PPG 1.75

S. LUQUENO · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Guarani (H) 71.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +42.8%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -43.0%

S. Luqueno (A) 10.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -61.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani face S. Luqueno in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani a 71% chance, the draw 18% and S. Luqueno 11%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Guarani and 0.7 for S. Luqueno (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for S. Luqueno. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Guarani vs S. Luqueno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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