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Bohemians vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 19:00

Bohemians

PPG 1.27 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

St. Patricks

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-112.2%0-27.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.1%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.0%2-17.2%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.2%3-12.6%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 2.60 -8.2%

Draw 28.2% 3.30 -4.2%

Away win 36.6% 2.60 -4.8%

Over 2.5 49.8% 2.00 -0.4%

Over 3.5 28.6% 3.55 +0.9%

BTTS 52.8% 1.73 -8.7%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 2.45 -13.0%

Away Over 1.5 37.4% 2.45 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.8%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bohemians1.1

St. Patricks1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.27

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.30)

Win probability 1X2

Bohemians (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -8.2%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.2%

St. Patricks (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bohemians face St. Patricks in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bohemians a 35% chance, the draw 28% and St. Patricks 37%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bohemians and 1.2 for St. Patricks (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bohemians are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.30 for St. Patricks. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Bohemians vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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