Today / Ireland - Premier Division / St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City

St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 16:00

St Patrick's Athl.

PPG 2.23 · HOME

UPCOMING

Derry City

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-16.2%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.5%1-110.6%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-15.3%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 56.8% 1.76 -1.8%

Draw 23.5% 28.6% 3.50 -10.7%

Away win 20.7% 21.5% 4.65 -2.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 26.3% 3.80 +5.9%

BTTS 48.7% 52.4% 1.91 -7.0%

Home O1.5 49.4% 51.3% 1.95 -3.7%

Away O1.5 20.3% 25.3% 3.95 -11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 2–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St Patrick's Athl.1.7

Derry City0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ST PATRICK'S ATHL. · PPG 2.23

DERRY CITY · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

St Patrick's Athl. (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -1.8%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.7%

Derry City (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

St Patrick's Athl. face Derry City in Ireland - Premier Division on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Derry City 21%, so St Patrick's Athl. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.7 for Derry City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 0.75 for Derry City. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +14.4%.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions