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Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:45

Dundalk

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sligo Rovers

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.4%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-19.3%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.9%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-16.0%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 69.4% 1.44 -17.6%

Draw 21.6% 22.7% 4.40 -3.0%

Away win 21.1% 14.7% 6.80 +26.1%

Over 2.5 61.3% 64.5% 1.55 -5.0%

Over 3.5 39.4% 42.0% 2.38 -6.2%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 60.1% 69.4% 1.44 -13.5%

Away O1.5 22.0% 28.2% 3.55 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -1.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundalk2.1

Sligo Rovers0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDALK · PPG 1.67

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dundalk (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.6%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -3.0%

Sligo Rovers (A) 21.1%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundalk face Sligo Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundalk a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Sligo Rovers 21%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Dundalk and 0.9 for Sligo Rovers (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundalk are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.67 for Sligo Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.4%.

Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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