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Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 19:00

Drogheda United

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.9%0-29.1%0-34.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.0%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.1%2-16.3%2-24.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.1%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 22.7% 4.40 +17.9%

Draw 25.3% 29.0% 3.45 -7.6%

Away win 45.2% 55.2% 1.81 -18.2%

Over 2.5 53.4% 50.0% 2.00 +6.8%

Over 3.5 32.2% 29.0% 3.45 +11.1%

BTTS 55.4% 54.6% 1.83 +1.4%

Home O1.5 32.6% 28.2% 3.55 +15.7%

Away O1.5 48.0% 51.8% 1.93 -7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -1.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.4%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda United1.0

Shamrock Rovers1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UNITED · PPG 1.17

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda United (H) 29.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +17.9%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.6%

Shamrock Rovers (A) 45.2%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda United face Shamrock Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda United a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Shamrock Rovers 45%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Drogheda United and 1.5 for Shamrock Rovers (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda United are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.62 for Shamrock Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.8%.

Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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