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Bohemians vs Galway United Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

Bohemians

PPG 1.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

Galway United

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.4%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.7%1-110.4%1-25.0%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.3%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 64.9% 1.54 -14.7%

Draw 22.6% 23.8% 4.20 -3.0%

Away win 21.9% 18.5% 5.40 +11.0%

Over 2.5 60.3% 61.7% 1.62 -2.3%

Over 3.5 35.1% 39.2% 2.55 -10.5%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 53.6% 65.4% 1.53 -18.0%

Away O1.5 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 55% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bohemians1.9

Galway United1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.42

GALWAY UNITED · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bohemians (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -14.7%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.0%

Galway United (A) 21.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bohemians face Galway United in Ireland - Premier Division on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bohemians a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Galway United 22%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bohemians and 1.0 for Galway United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bohemians are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 0.83 for Galway United. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.0%.

Bohemians vs Galway United Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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