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Wexford vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 18:45

Wexford

PPG 1.90 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Treaty Utd

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.6%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-111.3%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.5%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 1.72 -9.5%

Draw 24.1% 3.80 -5.1%

Away win 23.4% 4.45 +2.5%

Over 2.5 54.0% 1.85 -0.1%

Over 3.5 33.0% 3.20 +5.6%

BTTS 55.8% 1.77 -1.2%

Home Over 1.5 52.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 3.45 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -24.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.8%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0✓ 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wexford1.7

Treaty Utd0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WEXFORD · PPG 1.90

TREATY UTD · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.90) vs P(Home)=52.6%

Win probability 1X2

Wexford (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -9.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.1%

Treaty Utd (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wexford face Treaty Utd in Ireland - First Division on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wexford a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Treaty Utd 23%, so Wexford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wexford and 0.9 for Treaty Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wexford are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.40 for Treaty Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Wexford vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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