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UCD vs Treaty United Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 26 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:00

UCD

PPG 2.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Treaty United

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.5%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.8%1-18.0%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-19.1%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.3%3-17.0%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-16.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 60.2% 1.66 +5.9%

Draw 20.9% 25.3% 3.95 -10.5%

Away win 15.3% 21.3% 4.70 -16.9%

Over 2.5 61.2% 58.8% 1.70 +4.0%

Over 3.5 37.3% 35.7% 2.80 +4.4%

BTTS 49.2% 59.9% 1.67 -17.8%

Home O1.5 60.1% 60.6% 1.65 -0.8%

Away O1.5 20.3% 31.3% 3.20 -21.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 64% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 3–0 10.3%

#4 1–1 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCD2.3

Treaty United0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UCD · PPG 2.08

TREATY UNITED · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 2.08 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

UCD (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV +5.9%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -10.5%

Treaty United (A) 15.3%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCD face Treaty United in Ireland - First Division on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCD a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Treaty United 15%, so UCD are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for UCD and 0.7 for Treaty United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCD are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.67 for Treaty United. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.4%.

UCD vs Treaty United Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions