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Wexford vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 26 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:00

Wexford

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bray Wanderers

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.5%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.1%1-111.0%1-27.4%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.8%3-15.2%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.2%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 34.7% 2.88 +33.1%

Draw 24.8% 28.2% 3.55 -7.2%

Away win 29.0% 43.9% 2.28 -20.3%

Over 2.5 61.2% 57.8% 1.73 +5.9%

Over 3.5 37.3% 35.7% 2.80 +4.4%

BTTS 61.0% 63.7% 1.57 -4.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 42.6% 2.35 +16.1%

Away O1.5 43.7% 50.0% 2.00 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.0%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wexford1.7

Bray Wanderers1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WEXFORD · PPG 1.75

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wexford (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +33.1%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.2%

Bray Wanderers (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wexford face Bray Wanderers in Ireland - First Division on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wexford a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Bray Wanderers 29%, so Wexford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wexford and 1.3 for Bray Wanderers (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wexford are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Bray Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.9%.

Wexford vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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