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Longford Town vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 26 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:00

Longford Town

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Finn Harps

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-15.3%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.7%1-19.9%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.5%3-15.8%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-14.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 59.2% 1.69 -5.4%

Draw 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 21.7% 21.1% 4.75 +1.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 52.4% 1.91 +2.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 30.3% 3.30 +4.3%

BTTS 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Home O1.5 53.6% 55.6% 1.80 -3.5%

Away O1.5 20.3% 27.0% 3.70 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Longford Town1.9

Finn Harps0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 1.67

FINN HARPS · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Longford Town (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -5.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

Finn Harps (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Longford Town face Finn Harps in Ireland - First Division on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Longford Town a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Finn Harps 22%, so Longford Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Longford Town and 0.7 for Finn Harps (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Longford Town are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.50 for Finn Harps. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +7.6%.

Longford Town vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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