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Cork City vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 26 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:00

Cork City

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Athlone Town

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-13.0%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.6%1-17.0%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.8%2-18.1%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.2%3-16.3%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-16.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 71.4% 1.40 +0.5%

Draw 18.6% 23.3% 4.30 -12.0%

Away win 9.6% 12.0% 8.30 -12.2%

Over 2.5 57.5% 58.8% 1.70 -2.3%

Over 3.5 33.6% 37.0% 2.70 -9.3%

BTTS 48.7% 54.1% 1.85 -9.9%

Home O1.5 60.1% 67.6% 1.48 -11.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 22.2% 4.50 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.7%

H 72% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.8%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 3–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 1–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cork City2.3

Athlone Town0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CORK CITY · PPG 2.50

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 0.58

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.81 for Home, form 2.50 vs 0.58 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cork City (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +0.5%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -12.0%

Athlone Town (A) 9.6%

ODDS 8.30 · IMPLIED 12.0% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cork City face Athlone Town in Ireland - First Division on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cork City a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Athlone Town 10%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Cork City and 0.5 for Athlone Town (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cork City are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.58 for Athlone Town.

Cork City vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions