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Kerry vs Cobh Ramblers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 26 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:00

Kerry

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cobh Ramblers

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+36.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-16.8%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-111.3%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 40.0% 2.50 +36.5%

Draw 24.1% 29.9% 3.35 -11.6%

Away win 21.2% 37.3% 2.68 -25.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 30.8% 3.25 -3.6%

BTTS 49.1% 59.9% 1.67 -18.0%

Home O1.5 49.4% 43.5% 2.30 +13.6%

Away O1.5 20.3% 41.7% 2.40 -30.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry1.7

Cobh Ramblers0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.83

COBH RAMBLERS · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 54.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +36.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.6%

Cobh Ramblers (A) 21.2%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face Cobh Ramblers in Ireland - First Division on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Cobh Ramblers 21%, so Kerry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kerry and 0.8 for Cobh Ramblers (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.25 for Cobh Ramblers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.6%.

Kerry vs Cobh Ramblers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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