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Kerry vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 18:45

Kerry

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Longford Town

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-112.3%0-25.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.8%2-17.1%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.1%3-12.5%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 2.26 -1.0%

Draw 29.0% 3.35 -1.7%

Away win 27.1% 3.05 -10.4%

Over 2.5 44.2% 2.10 -7.2%

Over 3.5 23.4% 3.95 -4.5%

BTTS 48.1% 1.83 -12.0%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 2.35 -16.6%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 2.95 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -24.6%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry1.1

Longford Town0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.60

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -1.0%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.7%

Longford Town (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face Longford Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Longford Town 27%, so Kerry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kerry and 0.8 for Longford Town (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.80 for Longford Town. This match finished 2-1.

Kerry vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions