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Dundalk vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 22 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 18:45

Dundalk

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Waterford

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.2%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.9%1-17.8%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.8%3-17.8%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-18.4%4+-24.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 66.7% 1.50 -11.9%

Draw 21.5% 22.5% 4.45 -2.6%

Away win 19.8% 17.9% 5.60 +6.5%

Over 2.5 64.5% 67.6% 1.48 -4.5%

Over 3.5 41.8% 45.5% 2.20 -8.0%

BTTS 60.2% 64.5% 1.55 -6.7%

Home O1.5 60.6% 70.4% 1.42 -14.0%

Away O1.5 32.7% 33.3% 3.00 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.2%

H 59% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 7.8%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundalk2.4

Waterford1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDALK · PPG 2.00

WATERFORD · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=58.7%

Win probability 1X2

Dundalk (H) 58.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -11.9%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -2.6%

Waterford (A) 19.8%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundalk face Waterford in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundalk a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Waterford 20%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Dundalk and 1.0 for Waterford (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundalk are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Waterford. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Dundalk vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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