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Bayswater vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 11:00

Bayswater

PPG 2.43 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Perth RedStar

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.0%0-22.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.2%1-17.0%1-25.9%1-33.3%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-26.9%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.8%3-16.4%3-25.4%3-33.0%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-16.5%4+-25.5%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 1.95 +0.6%

Draw 21.3% 3.40 -16.6%

Away win 27.1% 3.10 -9.6%

Over 2.5 68.7% 1.50 +3.0%

Over 3.5 48.3% 2.20 +6.3%

BTTS 68.6% 1.44 -1.2%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.67 +1.2%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 2.38 +18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.6%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.7 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayswater2.3

Perth RedStar1.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYSWATER · PPG 2.43

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.43) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bayswater (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.6%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -16.6%

Perth RedStar (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayswater face Perth RedStar in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayswater a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Perth RedStar 27%, so Bayswater are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Bayswater and 1.7 for Perth RedStar (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayswater are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 2.00 for Perth RedStar. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Bayswater vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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