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Miami FC vs Orange County Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, June 24, 2026, 23:00

Miami FC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orange County

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.5%0-28.5%0-34.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.5%2-16.7%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 2.25 -29.8%

Draw 25.1% 3.30 -10.3%

Away win 43.7% 2.80 +22.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 1.93 +3.8%

Over 3.5 32.6% 3.35 +9.2%

BTTS 55.8% 1.70 -5.1%

Win probability 1X2

Miami FC (H) 31.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -29.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.3%

Orange County (A) 43.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.8%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miami FC1.1

Orange County1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MIAMI FC · PPG 2.00

ORANGE COUNTY · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.71)

Match Preview & Prediction

Miami FC face Orange County in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, June 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miami FC a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Orange County 44%, so Orange County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Miami FC and 1.5 for Orange County (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miami FC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.71 for Orange County. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +26.7%.

Miami FC vs Orange County Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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