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Charleston vs Loudoun Utd Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, June 24, 2026, 23:00

Charleston

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Loudoun Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.2%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.9%1-17.8%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.9%3-17.8%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-18.5%4+-24.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 63.3% 1.44 -8.8%

Draw 19.4% 4.40 -8.8%

Away win 17.3% 5.75 -0.3%

Over 2.5 66.1% 1.55 +2.5%

Over 3.5 43.6% 2.40 +4.6%

BTTS 60.9% 1.67 +1.7%

Win probability 1X2

Charleston (H) 63.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -8.8%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -8.8%

Loudoun Utd (A) 17.3%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.9%

H 63% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charleston2.4

Loudoun Utd1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTON · PPG 2.67

LOUDOUN UTD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=63.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charleston face Loudoun Utd in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, June 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charleston a 63% chance, the draw 19% and Loudoun Utd 17%, so Charleston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Charleston and 1.0 for Loudoun Utd (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charleston are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Loudoun Utd. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.8%.

Charleston vs Loudoun Utd Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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