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Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:00

Spaeri

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dinamo Tbilisi

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-19.6%0-26.7%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.8%1-112.3%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-17.9%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.4%3-13.4%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 30.8% 3.25 +23.2%

Draw 25.9% 30.3% 3.30 -8.7%

Away win 36.2% 50.0% 2.00 -27.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 31.8% 3.14 +3.0%

BTTS 57.5% 58.5% 1.71 -1.7%

Home O1.5 37.2% 35.2% 2.84 +5.7%

Away O1.5 43.7% 48.8% 2.05 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.5%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.9%

#3 1–2✓ 8.6%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spaeri1.3

Dinamo Tbilisi1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPAERI · PPG 1.33

DINAMO TBILISI · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Spaeri (H) 37.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +23.2%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.7%

Dinamo Tbilisi (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spaeri face Dinamo Tbilisi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spaeri a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Dinamo Tbilisi 36%, so Spaeri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Spaeri and 1.4 for Dinamo Tbilisi (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spaeri are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.78 for Dinamo Tbilisi. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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