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Shturmi vs Merani Martvili Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Shturmi

PPG 1.78 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Merani Martvili

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-110.7%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.8%1-112.6%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-17.5%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.2%3-13.0%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Draw 27.6% 27.8% 3.60 -0.4%

Away win 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -12.9%

Over 2.5 36.3% 48.8% 2.05 -25.6%

Over 3.5 19.2% 29.4% 3.40 -20.8%

BTTS 45.7% 57.1% 1.75 -20.0%

Home O1.5 32.5% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 73.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.7%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shturmi1.2

Merani Martvili0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHTURMI · PPG 1.78

MERANI MARTVILI · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 1.90 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shturmi (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -10.0%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.4%

Merani Martvili (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shturmi face Merani Martvili in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shturmi a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Merani Martvili 23%, so Shturmi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Shturmi and 0.7 for Merani Martvili (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shturmi are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.33 for Merani Martvili. This match finished 2-1.

Shturmi vs Merani Martvili Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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