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Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 17:00

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 2.11 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Samtredia

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+17.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.0%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.7%1-18.9%1-24.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.0%3-17.2%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-16.7%4+-23.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 46.5% 2.15 +21.5%

Draw 22.3% 29.4% 3.40 -14.5%

Away win 21.1% 34.7% 2.88 -23.5%

Over 2.5 63.6% 54.1% 1.85 +17.7%

Over 3.5 41.0% 33.3% 3.00 +23.0%

BTTS 61.0% 60.6% 1.65 +0.7%

Home O1.5 62.4% — — —

Away O1.5 32.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 73.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.0%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aragvi Dusheti2.2

Samtredia1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 2.11

SAMTREDIA · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aragvi Dusheti (H) 56.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +21.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.5%

Samtredia (A) 21.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aragvi Dusheti face Samtredia in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aragvi Dusheti a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Samtredia 21%, so Aragvi Dusheti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Aragvi Dusheti and 1.0 for Samtredia (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aragvi Dusheti are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.40 for Samtredia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.0%. This match finished 2-4.

Aragvi Dusheti vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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