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Dinamo Batumi vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 17:00

Dinamo Batumi

PPG 1.89 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gagra

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.7%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.8%1-112.0%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.4%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.8%3-14.9%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 52.4% 1.91 -3.4%

Draw 25.0% 29.4% 3.40 -9.0%

Away win 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Over 2.5 52.5% 54.1% 1.85 -2.9%

Over 3.5 29.7% 34.2% 2.92 -8.0%

BTTS 53.3% 60.6% 1.65 -12.1%

Home O1.5 46.5% 50.3% 1.99 -7.5%

Away O1.5 32.1% 37.3% 2.68 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.3%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 0–0 7.5%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Batumi1.6

Gagra1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO BATUMI · PPG 1.89

GAGRA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Batumi (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -3.4%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.0%

Gagra (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Batumi face Gagra in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Batumi a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Gagra 24%, so Dinamo Batumi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dinamo Batumi and 1.0 for Gagra (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Batumi are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.33 for Gagra. This match finished 2-2.

Dinamo Batumi vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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