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Telavi vs Gareji Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Telavi

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Gareji

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.6%0-113.1%0-24.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.4%1-112.4%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.2%2-15.8%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-11.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 55.6% 1.80 -28.5%

Draw 33.3% 30.8% 3.25 +8.2%

Away win 27.0% 25.6% 3.90 +3.2%

Over 2.5 35.5% 44.4% 2.25 -20.1%

Over 3.5 18.1% 25.0% 4.00 -16.6%

BTTS 45.5% 50.0% 2.00 -9.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 73.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 40% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 20.6%

#2 1–0 19.4%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Telavi0.9

Gareji0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TELAVI · PPG 2.40

GAREJI · PPG 1.78

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 1.58 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Telavi (H) 39.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -28.5%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +8.2%

Gareji (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Telavi face Gareji in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Telavi a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Gareji 27%, so Telavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Telavi and 0.6 for Gareji (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Telavi are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.78 for Gareji. This match finished 0-0.

Telavi vs Gareji Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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