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Atletico Cali vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura · Matchday 15 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 01:00

Atletico Cali

PPG 0.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Union Magdalena

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

Away 45% chance

Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 39.4% — a clear edge.

+46.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-115.5%0-212.3%0-36.5%0-4+3.6%1 1-07.3%1-111.5%1-29.1%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-02.7%2-14.2%2-23.4%2-31.8%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.4% 39.4% 2.54 -55.8%

Draw 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -10.9%

Away win 57.5% 39.4% 2.54 +46.1%

Over 2.5 41.0% 58.8% 1.70 -30.3%

Over 3.5 20.5% 35.7% 2.80 -42.6%

BTTS 41.5% 63.7% 1.57 -34.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob41.5%

A 57% / xG 0.7-1.6 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.5%

#2 0–2✓ 12.3%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Cali0.7

Union Magdalena1.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO CALI · PPG 0.57

UNION MAGDALENA · PPG 2.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

45%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Cali (H) 17.4%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -55.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.9%

Union Magdalena (A) 57.5%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +46.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Cali face Union Magdalena in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Cali a 17% chance, the draw 25% and Union Magdalena 57%, so Union Magdalena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Atletico Cali and 1.6 for Union Magdalena (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Cali are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 2.50 for Union Magdalena. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +46.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Atletico Cali vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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