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KR Reykjavik vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 11 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 19:15

KR Reykjavik

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

IA Akranes

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.6%0-20.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-01.3%1-12.4%1-22.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-02.6%2-14.7%2-24.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.4%3-16.0%3-25.4%3-33.2%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-116.3%4+-214.5%4+-38.6%4+-4+5.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 63.4% 1.55 -1.7%

Draw 17.3% 4.40 -14.3%

Away win 19.4% 4.33 -9.6%

Over 2.5 80.1% 1.30 +4.1%

Over 3.5 57.1% 1.80 +2.8%

BTTS 68.4% 1.35 -7.7%

Win probability 1X2

KR Reykjavik (H) 63.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -1.7%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -14.3%

IA Akranes (A) 19.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob68.4%

H 63% / xG 3.9-1.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.0%

#2 4–1 5.9%

#3 3–2 5.4%

#4 4–2 5.2%

#5 2–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KR Reykjavik3.9

IA Akranes1.8

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.1% · O3.5 PROB 57.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.67

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=63.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

KR Reykjavik face IA Akranes in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KR Reykjavik a 63% chance, the draw 17% and IA Akranes 19%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for KR Reykjavik and 1.8 for IA Akranes (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KR Reykjavik are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.67 for IA Akranes. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +40.4%.

KR Reykjavik vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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