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FH hafnarfjordur vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 17 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 19:15

FH hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

KR Reykjavik

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.7%0-23.7%0-33.4%0-4+4.5%1 1-01.8%1-15.0%1-26.9%1-36.4%1-4+8.5%2 2-01.7%2-14.7%2-26.5%2-36.0%2-4+8.0%3 3-01.1%3-13.0%3-24.1%3-33.7%3-4+5.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.1%4+-22.9%4+-32.7%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.9% 29.0% 3.45 +13.5%

Draw 21.2% 22.2% 4.50 -2.8%

Away win 46.0% 58.8% 1.70 -21.8%

Over 2.5 73.0% 83.3% 1.20 -12.4%

Over 3.5 52.7% 65.4% 1.53 -19.4%

BTTS 69.6% 82.0% 1.22 -15.1%

Home O1.5 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Away O1.5 65.0% 76.9% 1.30 -15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob69.6%

A 46% / xG 1.9-2.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 6.9%

#2 2–2 6.5%

#3 1–3 6.4%

#4 2–3 6.0%

#5 1–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FH hafnarfjordur1.9

KR Reykjavik2.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FH HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.88

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.43

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.87 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

FH hafnarfjordur (H) 32.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +13.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -2.8%

KR Reykjavik (A) 46.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FH hafnarfjordur face KR Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FH hafnarfjordur a 33% chance, the draw 21% and KR Reykjavik 46%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FH hafnarfjordur and 2.8 for KR Reykjavik (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FH hafnarfjordur are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.43 for KR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.6%.

FH hafnarfjordur vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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