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Keflavik vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 17 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 18:00

Keflavik

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

KA Akureyri

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.2%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.2%1-19.9%1-26.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.4%3-16.0%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 51.3% 1.95 +0.0%

Draw 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -6.2%

Away win 26.3% 34.5% 2.90 -14.2%

Over 2.5 63.8% 76.9% 1.30 -17.1%

Over 3.5 43.0% 56.5% 1.77 -23.9%

BTTS 64.0% 78.1% 1.28 -18.1%

Home O1.5 55.4% 67.6% 1.48 -18.0%

Away O1.5 43.7% 55.6% 1.80 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.0%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Keflavik1.9

KA Akureyri1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.50

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Keflavik (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.2%

KA Akureyri (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Keflavik face KA Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keflavik a 51% chance, the draw 22% and KA Akureyri 26%, so Keflavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Keflavik and 1.4 for KA Akureyri (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keflavik are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for KA Akureyri.

Keflavik vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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