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Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 19:15

Valur Reykjavik

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stjarnan

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.6%0-22.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-03.8%1-16.4%1-25.5%1-33.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.6%2-18.0%2-26.8%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.8%3-16.6%3-25.6%3-33.2%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-17.3%4+-26.3%4+-33.6%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 43.5% 2.30 +19.8%

Draw 21.5% 25.0% 4.00 -8.4%

Away win 26.4% 40.8% 2.45 -21.2%

Over 2.5 72.7% 80.0% 1.25 -9.1%

Over 3.5 50.0% 60.6% 1.65 -17.5%

BTTS 70.3% 82.0% 1.22 -14.2%

Home O1.5 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Away O1.5 48.0% 64.5% 1.55 -25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob70.3%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valur Reykjavik2.5

Stjarnan1.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VALUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.25

STJARNAN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Valur Reykjavik (H) 52.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +19.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.4%

Stjarnan (A) 26.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valur Reykjavik face Stjarnan in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valur Reykjavik a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Stjarnan 26%, so Valur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Valur Reykjavik and 1.7 for Stjarnan (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valur Reykjavik are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Stjarnan. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.8%.

Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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