Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik

Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 17 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 18:30

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Breidablik

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.8%0-27.4%0-35.4%0-4+5.0%1 1-04.0%1-18.7%1-29.5%1-37.0%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.5%2-15.6%2-26.1%2-34.5%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.1%3-12.4%3-22.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.7% 26.0% 3.85 -0.6%

Draw 21.0% 23.8% 4.20 -7.1%

Away win 53.3% 60.6% 1.65 -12.1%

Over 2.5 66.8% 76.9% 1.30 -13.2%

Over 3.5 44.8% 55.6% 1.80 -19.4%

BTTS 63.5% 75.2% 1.33 -15.5%

Home O1.5 37.5% 47.6% 2.10 -21.3%

Away O1.5 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.5%

A 53% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 1–3 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thor Akureyri1.3

Breidablik2.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.88

BREIDABLIK · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.91 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Thor Akureyri (H) 25.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.6%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.1%

Breidablik (A) 53.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thor Akureyri face Breidablik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thor Akureyri a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Breidablik 53%, so Breidablik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Thor Akureyri and 2.2 for Breidablik (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thor Akureyri are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.25 for Breidablik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - Úrvalsdeild Predictions