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Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 25 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 19:00

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Derry City

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-17.3%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.8%1-111.5%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.0%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-14.7%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 54.1% 1.85 +0.8%

Draw 24.9% 29.4% 3.40 -9.2%

Away win 20.6% 23.8% 4.20 -8.1%

Over 2.5 49.5% 47.6% 2.10 +4.0%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.0% 3.85 +4.9%

BTTS 48.5% 52.6% 1.90 -7.8%

Home O1.5 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Away O1.5 23.2% 27.0% 3.70 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 1–1✓ 11.5%

#3 2–0 12.4%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamrock Rovers1.6

Derry City0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 2.50

DERRY CITY · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=54.5%

Win probability 1X2

Shamrock Rovers (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +0.8%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.2%

Derry City (A) 20.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamrock Rovers face Derry City in Ireland - Premier Division on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamrock Rovers a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Derry City 21%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Shamrock Rovers and 0.7 for Derry City (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamrock Rovers are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.73 for Derry City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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