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Shelbourne vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 25 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 18:45

Shelbourne

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bohemians

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+11.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.2%0-26.0%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.0%1-111.6%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.2%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.7%3-13.9%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 38.2% 2.62 +4.3%

Draw 24.5% 30.8% 3.25 -12.2%

Away win 35.7% 38.2% 2.62 -6.5%

Over 2.5 61.1% 47.6% 2.10 +28.3%

Over 3.5 37.0% 26.3% 3.80 +40.6%

BTTS 61.7% 55.6% 1.80 +11.1%

Home O1.5 43.4% 39.2% 2.55 +10.7%

Away O1.5 49.9% 39.2% 2.55 +27.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.7%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shelbourne1.4

Bohemians1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHELBOURNE · PPG 1.00

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.82

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.82) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Shelbourne (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +4.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.2%

Bohemians (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shelbourne face Bohemians in Ireland - Premier Division on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shelbourne a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Bohemians 36%, so Shelbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Shelbourne and 1.5 for Bohemians (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shelbourne are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.82 for Bohemians. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +40.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Shelbourne vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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