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Orebro vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 13 ·Monday, June 22, 2026, 17:05

Orebro

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sandviken

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-112.1%0-27.9%0-33.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.3%2-16.9%2-24.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 37.0% 2.70 -16.6%

Draw 26.4% 28.2% 3.55 -3.8%

Away win 42.7% 41.7% 2.40 +2.5%

Over 2.5 49.5% 57.1% 1.75 -13.4%

Over 3.5 29.2% 35.1% 2.85 -10.1%

BTTS 52.8% 63.7% 1.57 -17.1%

Home O1.5 36.4% 44.4% 2.25 -18.1%

Away O1.5 34.4% 47.6% 2.10 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.8%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orebro1.1

Sandviken1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OREBRO · PPG 1.17

SANDVIKEN · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Orebro (H) 30.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.8%

Sandviken (A) 42.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orebro face Sandviken in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, June 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orebro a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Sandviken 43%, so Sandviken are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Orebro and 1.3 for Sandviken (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orebro are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.80 for Sandviken. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Orebro vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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