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Juan Pablo II vs Comerciantes U. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 11 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 20:15

Juan Pablo II

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Comerciantes U.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 87.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+79.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.5%0-21.6%0-31.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-01.9%1-14.2%1-24.5%1-33.2%1-4+2.9%2 2-02.7%2-15.9%2-26.4%2-34.6%2-4+4.1%3 3-02.6%3-15.6%3-26.0%3-34.3%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-17.8%4+-28.4%4+-36.0%4+-4+5.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 52.6% 1.90 -0.1%

Draw 17.8% 29.0% 3.45 -38.6%

Away win 29.7% 25.3% 3.95 +17.3%

Over 2.5 87.3% 48.8% 2.05 +79.0%

Over 3.5 73.2% 27.0% 3.70 +170.8%

BTTS 83.2% 54.6% 1.83 +52.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob83.2%

H 53% / xG 2.8-2.2 / O2.5 87% / BTTS 83%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2✓ 6.4%

#2 3–2 6.0%

#3 2–1 5.9%

#4 3–1 5.6%

#5 2–3 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juan Pablo II2.8

Comerciantes U.2.2

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 87.3% · O3.5 PROB 73.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAN PABLO II · PPG 1.40

COMERCIANTES U. · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Juan Pablo II (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -0.1%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -38.6%

Comerciantes U. (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juan Pablo II face Comerciantes U. in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juan Pablo II a 53% chance, the draw 18% and Comerciantes U. 30%, so Juan Pablo II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Juan Pablo II and 2.2 for Comerciantes U. (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 87% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 83% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juan Pablo II are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Comerciantes U.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +170.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Juan Pablo II vs Comerciantes U. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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