Juan Pablo II vs Comerciantes U. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Peru - Primera División Apertura - 11 Estadio Municipal de la Juventud· Chongoyape Saturday, April 18, 2026 20:15

Juan Pablo II PPG 1.40

2-2 HIT MostLikelyScore

Comerciantes U. PPG 1.00

Over3.5· +170.8% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Juan Pablo II face Comerciantes U. in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juan Pablo II a 53% chance, the draw 18% and Comerciantes U. 30%, so Juan Pablo II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Juan Pablo II and 2.2 for Comerciantes U. (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 87% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 83% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juan Pablo II are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Comerciantes U.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +170.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.6%

Odds: 1.90 EV: -0.1%

Draw 17.8%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -38.6%

Away 29.7%

Odds: 3.95 EV: +17.3%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 87.3% Odds: 2.05 +79.0%

Over 3.5 73.2% Odds: 3.70 +170.8%

BTTS 83.2% Odds: 1.83 +52.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-2 ✔

2nd 3-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 2-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Juan Pablo II

2.82

Comerciantes U.

2.16

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +79.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+170.8%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 64%

BTTS/No 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 54% (26 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)