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Fram vs Vikingur R. Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 20:15

Fram

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vikingur R.

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 80.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.9%0-24.7%0-35.1%0-4+9.1%1 1-01.4%1-14.3%1-27.0%1-37.5%1-4+13.5%2 2-01.0%2-13.2%2-25.2%2-35.5%2-4+10.0%3 3-00.5%3-11.6%3-22.6%3-32.7%3-4+4.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.3% 26.0% 3.85 -20.0%

Draw 17.0% 23.8% 4.20 -17.2%

Away win 65.7% 60.6% 1.65 +8.4%

Over 2.5 77.0% 76.9% 1.30 +0.1%

Over 3.5 53.2% 55.6% 1.80 -4.2%

BTTS 68.1% 75.2% 1.33 -9.4%

Home O1.5 43.4% 47.6% 2.10 -8.9%

Away O1.5 80.6% 73.5% 1.36 +9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob68.1%

A 66% / xG 1.5-3.2 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.5%

#2 1–2 7.0%

#3 1–4 6.0%

#4 2–3 5.5%

#5 2–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fram1.5

Vikingur R.3.2

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.0% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FRAM · PPG 2.60

VIKINGUR R. · PPG 3.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.60) vs Away EXCELLENT (3.00)

Win probability 1X2

Fram (H) 17.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -20.0%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -17.2%

Vikingur R. (A) 65.7%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fram face Vikingur R. in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fram a 17% chance, the draw 17% and Vikingur R. 66%, so Vikingur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fram and 3.2 for Vikingur R. (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fram are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 3.00 for Vikingur R.. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +27.0%.

Fram vs Vikingur R. Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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