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Vikingur Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Vikingur Reykjavik

PPG 2.75 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.8%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.9%1-13.0%1-21.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.5%2-15.7%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-17.2%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-024.8%4+-118.8%4+-27.2%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.2% 76.9% 1.30 -2.2%

Draw 16.5% 18.5% 5.40 -6.5%

Away win 8.4% 14.8% 6.75 -26.0%

Over 2.5 73.0% 76.9% 1.30 -5.1%

Over 3.5 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 78.3% 82.0% 1.22 -4.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 33.3% 3.00 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 75% / xG 3.8-0.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.5%

#2 4–0 9.1%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 5–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vikingur Reykjavik3.8

IBV Vestmannaeyjar0.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.75

IBV VESTMANNAEYJAR · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.06 for Home, form 2.75 vs 0.62 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vikingur Reykjavik (H) 75.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -2.2%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -6.5%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (A) 8.4%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV -26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vikingur Reykjavik face IBV Vestmannaeyjar in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vikingur Reykjavik a 75% chance, the draw 17% and IBV Vestmannaeyjar 8%, so Vikingur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Vikingur Reykjavik and 0.8 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vikingur Reykjavik are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 0.62 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Vikingur Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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