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Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 18 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 19:15

Fram Reykjavik

PPG 2.12 · HOME

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

KR Reykjavik

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.1% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.3%0-20.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-00.4%1-11.2%1-21.7%1-31.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-00.8%2-12.3%2-23.4%2-33.4%2-4+5.4%3 3-01.0%3-13.0%3-24.5%3-34.5%3-4+7.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-18.3%4+-212.4%4+-312.4%4+-4+19.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 39.2% 2.55 +36.9%

Draw 16.7% 23.8% 4.20 -17.9%

Away win 29.6% 46.5% 2.15 -21.8%

Over 2.5 82.1% 85.5% 1.17 -3.9%

Over 3.5 72.5% 69.4% 1.44 +4.4%

BTTS 78.6% 85.5% 1.17 -8.0%

Home O1.5 80.3% 69.0% 1.45 +16.4%

Away O1.5 69.4% 73.5% 1.36 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob78.6%

H 54% / xG 3.9-3.0 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 79%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 4.5%

#2 3–3 4.5%

#3 4–2 4.4%

#4 4–3 4.4%

#5 5–2 3.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fram Reykjavik3.9

KR Reykjavik3.0

COMBINED 6.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 72.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FRAM REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.12

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.38

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fram Reykjavik (H) 53.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +36.9%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -17.9%

KR Reykjavik (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fram Reykjavik face KR Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fram Reykjavik a 54% chance, the draw 17% and KR Reykjavik 30%, so Fram Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Fram Reykjavik and 3.0 for KR Reykjavik (6.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fram Reykjavik are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.38 for KR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.1%. This match finished 2-5.

Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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