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Breidablik vs Valur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:15

Breidablik

PPG 2.38 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Valur Reykjavik

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.1%0-21.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.2%1-17.6%1-24.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.2%3-17.6%3-24.6%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-18.4%4+-25.1%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Draw 21.9% 22.7% 4.40 -2.2%

Away win 22.7% 23.1% 4.33 -1.0%

Over 2.5 65.2% 78.1% 1.28 -16.5%

Over 3.5 43.8% 58.8% 1.70 -25.5%

BTTS 62.9% 76.9% 1.30 -18.2%

Home O1.5 62.5% 76.9% 1.30 -18.8%

Away O1.5 35.7% 47.6% 2.10 -25.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.9%

H 55% / xG 2.5-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breidablik2.5

Valur Reykjavik1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BREIDABLIK · PPG 2.38

VALUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Breidablik (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -14.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -2.2%

Valur Reykjavik (A) 22.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Breidablik face Valur Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breidablik a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Valur Reykjavik 23%, so Breidablik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Breidablik and 1.2 for Valur Reykjavik (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breidablik are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.12 for Valur Reykjavik. This match finished 1-3.

Breidablik vs Valur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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