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KA Akureyri vs FH hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:15

KA Akureyri

PPG 0.88 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FH hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.3%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.9%1-111.0%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.6%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.5%3-15.6%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Draw 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

Away win 26.0% 35.7% 2.80 -16.3%

Over 2.5 60.4% 75.2% 1.33 -19.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 52.6% 1.90 -30.1%

BTTS 61.3% 76.9% 1.30 -20.3%

Home O1.5 49.2% 64.5% 1.55 -23.7%

Away O1.5 35.7% 54.6% 1.83 -34.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KA Akureyri1.7

FH hafnarfjordur1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 0.88

FH HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

KA Akureyri (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV 0.0%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.4%

FH hafnarfjordur (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

KA Akureyri face FH hafnarfjordur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KA Akureyri a 50% chance, the draw 24% and FH hafnarfjordur 26%, so KA Akureyri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for KA Akureyri and 1.2 for FH hafnarfjordur (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KA Akureyri are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.75 for FH hafnarfjordur. This match finished 0-1.

KA Akureyri vs FH hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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