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IA Akranes vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

IA Akranes

PPG 1.12 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.3%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.6%1-18.0%1-24.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-17.7%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-18.1%4+-24.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 69.4% 1.44 -12.7%

Draw 20.0% 21.1% 4.75 -3.0%

Away win 19.4% 18.5% 5.40 +2.9%

Over 2.5 64.7% 76.9% 1.30 -15.9%

Over 3.5 43.0% 56.5% 1.77 -23.9%

BTTS 61.8% 71.4% 1.40 -13.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 78.1% 1.28 -20.1%

Away O1.5 33.4% 40.0% 2.50 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.8%

H 61% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 2–0✓ 9.1%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IA Akranes2.4

Thor Akureyri1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.12

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IA Akranes (H) 60.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -12.7%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -3.0%

Thor Akureyri (A) 19.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

IA Akranes face Thor Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IA Akranes a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Thor Akureyri 19%, so IA Akranes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for IA Akranes and 1.1 for Thor Akureyri (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IA Akranes are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.62 for Thor Akureyri. This match finished 2-0.

IA Akranes vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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