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Stjarnan vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Stjarnan

PPG 0.88 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Keflavik

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.9%0-22.6%0-31.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.7%1-16.7%1-26.1%1-33.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.3%2-17.8%2-27.1%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.3%3-16.0%3-25.5%3-33.3%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-16.0%4+-25.5%4+-33.3%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 56.5% 1.77 -12.6%

Draw 22.0% 23.8% 4.20 -4.6%

Away win 28.5% 29.4% 3.40 -1.9%

Over 2.5 72.1% 80.0% 1.25 -9.9%

Over 3.5 47.5% 60.6% 1.65 -21.6%

BTTS 69.6% 80.0% 1.25 -13.0%

Home O1.5 62.4% 73.5% 1.36 -15.1%

Away O1.5 50.3% 55.6% 1.80 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.6%

H 49% / xG 2.3-1.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 1–1 6.7%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.1%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stjarnan2.3

Keflavik1.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STJARNAN · PPG 0.88

KEFLAVIK · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stjarnan (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -12.6%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.6%

Keflavik (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stjarnan face Keflavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stjarnan a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Keflavik 28%, so Stjarnan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Stjarnan and 1.8 for Keflavik (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stjarnan are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.88 for Keflavik. This match finished 1-0.

Stjarnan vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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