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CA Guemes vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 20:00

CA Guemes

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-112.4%0-27.8%0-33.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.4%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.5%2-17.0%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.0%3-12.5%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 33.3% 3.00 -6.1%

Draw 27.0% 37.0% 2.70 -16.3%

Away win 41.7% 39.2% 2.55 +6.3%

Over 2.5 49.5% 40.8% 2.45 +21.3%

Over 3.5 28.2% 22.2% 4.50 +16.1%

BTTS 52.6% 51.8% 1.93 +1.5%

Home O1.5 36.4% 32.3% 3.10 +12.8%

Away O1.5 34.4% 36.4% 2.75 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 0–1 12.4%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Guemes1.1

Gimnasia Jujuy1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CA GUEMES · PPG 1.56

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

CA Guemes (H) 31.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.3%

Gimnasia Jujuy (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Guemes face Gimnasia Jujuy in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Guemes a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Gimnasia Jujuy 42%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for CA Guemes and 1.3 for Gimnasia Jujuy (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Guemes are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.00 for Gimnasia Jujuy. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.3%. This match finished 1-3.

CA Guemes vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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