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Colon Santa Fe vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:30

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

San Telmo

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-16.1%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.2%1-19.9%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.5%2-18.0%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-14.3%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-12.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 66.7% 1.50 -13.6%

Draw 25.2% 29.9% 3.35 -9.3%

Away win 17.3% 13.9% 7.20 +14.7%

Over 2.5 44.0% 40.8% 2.45 +7.8%

Over 3.5 22.0% 21.1% 4.75 +2.7%

BTTS 45.5% 40.8% 2.45 +11.5%

Home O1.5 47.5% 52.4% 1.91 -9.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 16.7% 6.00 +2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.5%

H 58% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.2%

#2 2–0 15.5%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 1–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colon Santa Fe1.6

San Telmo0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 2.00

SAN TELMO · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colon Santa Fe (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.6%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.3%

San Telmo (A) 17.3%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colon Santa Fe face San Telmo in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colon Santa Fe a 58% chance, the draw 25% and San Telmo 17%, so Colon Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Colon Santa Fe and 0.5 for San Telmo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colon Santa Fe are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for San Telmo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Colon Santa Fe vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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