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Deportivo Moron vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Moron

PPG 2.45 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Acassuso

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-13.8%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.4%1-18.0%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.1%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-15.8%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-14.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 65.4% 1.53 -2.1%

Draw 21.3% 32.3% 3.10 -20.4%

Away win 14.7% 12.5% 8.00 +10.6%

Over 2.5 53.4% 40.0% 2.50 +33.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 18.2% 5.50 +74.4%

BTTS 48.4% 40.8% 2.45 +18.6%

Home O1.5 61.4% 51.8% 1.93 +18.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 11.1% 9.00 +34.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.4%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.1%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 3–0 11.2%

#4 1–1 8.0%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Moron2.1

Acassuso0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 2.45

ACASSUSO · PPG 0.58

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.57 for Home, form 2.45 vs 0.58 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Moron (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -2.1%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.4%

Acassuso (A) 14.7%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Moron face Acassuso in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Moron a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Acassuso 15%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Deportivo Moron and 0.5 for Acassuso (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Moron are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 0.58 for Acassuso. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +74.4%. This match finished 4-1.

Deportivo Moron vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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