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Gimnasia Jujuy vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 18:00

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 2.64 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.7%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.5%1-112.4%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-18.9%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 57.8% 1.73 -14.2%

Draw 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -11.6%

Away win 23.4% 18.2% 5.50 +17.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 40.0% 2.50 +24.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 21.1% 4.75 +21.8%

BTTS 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Home O1.5 45.1% 47.6% 2.10 -5.3%

Away O1.5 21.5% 20.0% 5.00 +4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Jujuy1.4

Tristan Suarez0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 2.64

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Jujuy (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -14.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.6%

Tristan Suarez (A) 23.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy face Tristan Suarez in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Jujuy a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Tristan Suarez 23%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.9 for Tristan Suarez (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Jujuy are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 1.73 for Tristan Suarez. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +40.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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