Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / Los Andes vs Ferro Carril Oeste

Los Andes vs Ferro Carril Oeste Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 17:30

Los Andes

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Ferro Carril Oeste

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.5%0-111.0%0-22.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-023.1%1-110.8%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.3%2-15.3%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.7%3-11.7%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 38.5% 2.60 +23.8%

Draw 32.1% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

Away win 20.4% 34.7% 2.88 -24.8%

Over 2.5 34.8% 29.9% 3.35 +16.6%

Over 3.5 15.0% 12.5% 8.00 +12.0%

BTTS 44.9% 40.8% 2.45 +10.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 28.2% 3.55 +14.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 26.0% 3.85 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.9%

H 48% / xG 1.0-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.5%

#2 1–0 23.1%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 0–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Andes1.0

Ferro Carril Oeste0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANDES · PPG 1.50

FERRO CARRIL OESTE · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Los Andes (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +23.8%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.3%

Ferro Carril Oeste (A) 20.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Andes face Ferro Carril Oeste in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Andes a 48% chance, the draw 32% and Ferro Carril Oeste 20%, so Los Andes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Los Andes and 0.5 for Ferro Carril Oeste (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Andes are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Ferro Carril Oeste. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Los Andes vs Ferro Carril Oeste Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions