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Atletico Mitre vs Defensores De Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Atletico Mitre

PPG 1.36 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Defensores De Belgrano

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.4%0-111.1%0-23.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.6%1-112.5%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-17.1%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.0%3-12.7%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 42.9% 2.33 +4.9%

Draw 32.4% 35.7% 2.80 -9.3%

Away win 22.6% 31.3% 3.20 -16.6%

Over 2.5 34.8% 32.3% 3.10 +7.9%

Over 3.5 18.1% 15.4% 6.50 +10.6%

BTTS 45.5% 42.6% 2.35 +6.9%

Home O1.5 32.1% 33.3% 3.00 -3.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 25.0% 4.00 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.5%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.4%

#2 1–0 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Mitre1.1

Defensores De Belgrano0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 1.36

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 1.81 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Mitre (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +4.9%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.3%

Defensores De Belgrano (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Mitre face Defensores De Belgrano in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Mitre a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Defensores De Belgrano 23%, so Atletico Mitre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Atletico Mitre and 0.7 for Defensores De Belgrano (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Mitre are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.09 for Defensores De Belgrano. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Atletico Mitre vs Defensores De Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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