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Colegiales vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Colegiales

PPG 2.18 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Patronato

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-18.0%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.6%1-110.6%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-17.0%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.3%3-13.1%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Draw 26.8% 36.4% 2.75 -15.8%

Away win 20.7% 23.1% 4.33 -6.2%

Over 2.5 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

Over 3.5 21.6% 14.3% 7.00 +30.7%

BTTS 45.5% 42.0% 2.38 +8.3%

Home O1.5 37.4% 37.7% 2.65 -0.9%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.5%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.6%

#2 0–0 16.3%

#3 2–0 14.3%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colegiales1.3

Patronato0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

COLEGIALES · PPG 2.18

PATRONATO · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colegiales (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +5.2%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.8%

Patronato (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colegiales face Patronato in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colegiales a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Patronato 21%, so Colegiales are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Colegiales and 0.5 for Patronato (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colegiales are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 0.82 for Patronato. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Colegiales vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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