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Patronato vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 4 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 18:30

Patronato

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Midland

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-027.1%0-118.1%0-26.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.3%1-111.5%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.5%2-13.7%2-21.2%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.2%3-10.8%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 33.2% 2.25 -25.3%

Draw 38.4% 2.80 +7.5%

Away win 28.4% 3.30 -3.8%

Over 2.5 29.6% 3.00 -6.7%

Over 3.5 12.1% 6.50 -12.8%

BTTS 43.3% 2.30 -0.4%

Win probability 1X2

Patronato (H) 33.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -25.3%

Draw 38.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +7.5%

Midland (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.3%

D 38% / xG 0.6-0.7 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 27.1%

#2 0–1 18.1%

#3 1–0 17.3%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patronato0.6

Midland0.7

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.6% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRONATO · PPG 1.50

MIDLAND · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Patronato face Midland in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patronato a 33% chance, the draw 38% and Midland 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Patronato and 0.7 for Midland (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patronato are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Midland. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.5%.

Patronato vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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