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Almirante Brown vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 18:30

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Atletico Mitre

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-027.9%0-115.3%0-24.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.3%1-111.1%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.4%2-14.0%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.8%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 42.0% 2.38 +0.4%

Draw 34.2% 39.2% 2.55 -12.8%

Away win 23.6% 28.6% 3.50 -10.4%

Over 2.5 29.6% 32.3% 3.10 -4.9%

Over 3.5 12.1% 14.3% 7.00 -9.2%

BTTS 43.4% 43.5% 2.30 -0.2%

Home O1.5 32.4% 32.3% 3.10 +0.4%

Away O1.5 18.0% 23.8% 4.20 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.4%

H 42% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 27.9%

#2 1–0 20.3%

#3 0–1 15.3%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almirante Brown0.7

Atletico Mitre0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.6% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.75

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=42.2%

Win probability 1X2

Almirante Brown (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +0.4%

Draw 34.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -12.8%

Atletico Mitre (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almirante Brown face Atletico Mitre in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almirante Brown a 42% chance, the draw 34% and Atletico Mitre 24%, so Almirante Brown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Almirante Brown and 0.5 for Atletico Mitre (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almirante Brown are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.78 for Atletico Mitre. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Almirante Brown vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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