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Valur vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 18:00

Valur

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Keflavik

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.6%0-22.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.5%1-16.3%1-25.6%1-33.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.3%2-17.7%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.6%3-16.4%3-25.7%3-33.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-17.0%4+-26.3%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Draw 22.1% 4.00 -7.0%

Away win 28.0% 2.80 -13.0%

Over 2.5 70.4% 1.30 -8.5%

Over 3.5 47.5% 1.77 -15.9%

BTTS 68.1% 1.28 -12.8%

Win probability 1X2

Valur (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV 0.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.0%

Keflavik (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 79%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 21%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob68.1%

H 50% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.7%

#2 1–1 6.3%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valur2.5

Keflavik1.8

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VALUR · PPG 1.50

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Match Preview & Prediction

Valur face Keflavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valur a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Keflavik 28%, so Valur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Valur and 1.8 for Keflavik (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valur are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.20 for Keflavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.0%.

Valur vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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