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IBV vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 18:00

IBV

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stjarnan

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+12.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.5%0-22.0%0-31.8%0-4+2.3%1 1-01.4%1-13.8%1-25.1%1-34.5%1-4+5.7%2 2-01.8%2-14.7%2-26.3%2-35.6%2-4+7.2%3 3-01.5%3-13.9%3-25.3%3-34.7%3-4+6.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-14.5%4+-26.0%4+-35.3%4+-4+6.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 40.0% 2.50 +9.5%

Draw 20.1% 26.3% 3.80 -14.2%

Away win 36.1% 44.4% 2.25 -18.8%

Over 2.5 82.6% 73.5% 1.36 +12.3%

Over 3.5 57.1% 51.8% 1.93 +10.2%

BTTS 68.4% 76.9% 1.30 -11.1%

Home O1.5 60.3% 57.1% 1.75 +5.5%

Away O1.5 68.6% 59.9% 1.67 +14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob68.4%

A 36% / xG 2.5-2.7 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 2–3 5.6%

#3 3–2 5.3%

#4 1–2 5.1%

#5 2–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IBV2.5

Stjarnan2.7

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.6% · O3.5 PROB 57.1%

Form & verdict PPG

IBV · PPG 0.80

STJARNAN · PPG 1.75

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.75) strong but model favors Home (P=43.8%)

Win probability 1X2

IBV (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +9.5%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -14.2%

Stjarnan (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

IBV face Stjarnan in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IBV a 44% chance, the draw 20% and Stjarnan 36%, so IBV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for IBV and 2.7 for Stjarnan (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IBV are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.75 for Stjarnan. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +21.6%.

IBV vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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